Even after high-profile failures, many in the policy community continue to call for ousting illiberal regimes. They argue that covert non-lethal and lethal support for internal opposition can achieve objectives more cheaply, quickly, and without escalating to wider military action. But the prevailing literature on regime change reveals that these operations rarely succeed.
Moreover, they do more harm than good. They often foster a sense of resentment toward the United States and its allies among the peoples of the targeted countries. This is the case, for example, of Venezuela, where the US has been urging President Maduro to step down. It is also the case of Chile and Iran, where covert interventions helped to spawn dictatorships that have been harmful for local populations and harmed American interests.
When it comes to Iran, the CIA’s Operation PBSUCCESS in 1954 overthrew the democratically elected Jacobo Arbenz and helped seed resentment that eventually bred the anti-American government of today. The same can be said of the US’s role in helping to overthrow Mohammad Mosaddegh in 1953 and its support for a military coup in 1960 that helped establish a brutal dictatorship that would last for decades.
The American public and its leaders should recognize the perils of regime change. And they should take steps to discourage further covert American involvement in such missions. The alternatives are many: Accepting more asylum seekers, supporting civil society groups without covert aid, focusing on non-lethal and lethal support for domestic opposition, and avoiding competing actions that do not promote greater American interests.